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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."